As I research environmental and societal collapse, I have begun to see more references to polycrisis. The term defines itself as multiple crises.
As globalization created increasingly networked societies to facilitate the flow of information, capital, goods, services, and people, it led to the emergence of global systemic risks that could precipitate a catastrophic failure of the system. Systemic risks are “potential threats that endanger the functionality of systems of critical importance for society.” They are complex phenomena characterized by high uncertainty and ambiguity that express ripple effects impacting other systems. The global financial crisis of 2007-8 was a watershed moment for the field of systemic risks, leading to a growth of interest and scholarship.
When multiple systemic risks combine in a network it is called a risk nexus. The water-energy-food nexus and the energy-environment-growth nexus are particularly well-known and widely discussed. Risk nexuses that interact can produce interrelated and synchronized systemic crises, generating a multi-systemic crisis—called a polycrisis— with cascading effects to society. A growing number of people argue polycrisis is already here and has been developing for some time. Though there is need for further study, there already exists some literature that measures, tracks, and analyzes the interacting systemic risks implicated in a polycrisis, and in some cases, they provide theoretical or conceptual models for understanding the relationships between these risks (e.g. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6). By reviewing the literature, one can identify global systemic risks that frequently reappear.
The global polycrisis reflects a civilizational crisis that calls for systemic alternatives by Zack Walsh, Omega, June 1, 2023
A polycrisis is a situation where multiple crises occur simultaneously or in a sequence, with the potential to exacerbate each other and create a complex, interconnected web of challenges. These crises can span various dimensions, such as economic, political, social, and environmental factors.
Although by no means exhaustive, the following list identifies risks that are commonly associated with polycrisis and gives a short description highlighting some effects and interactions:
- Environmental Degradation diminishes the Earth’s carrying capacity, including the resources available for consumption, and causes premature deaths due to toxins and pollutants.
- Climate Change is a threat multiplier. It significantly contributes to food and water crises, weather-related disasters, migration, and global insecurity.
- Biodiversity Loss contributes to habitat and species loss, destroys vital ecosystem services required for subsistence, and reduces nature-based carbon sequestration, further exacerbating climate change.
- Population Growth increases consumption of energy and resources, putting pressure on the environment.
- Food, Water, and Energy Insecurity creates famine, premature death, and is a primary contributor of civil unrest, violence, war, terrorism, and migration.
- Civil Unrest, War, and Terrorism leads to trauma, violence, death, environmental damage, waste, social instability and/or collapse.
- Mass Migration leads to global insecurity, death, and contributes to the rise of racism, right wing populism, and authoritarianism.
- Crisis of Democracy includes issues of corruption, political polarization, decreasing institutional legitimacy, and rising authoritarianism. Falling rates of democratic participation and the diminishing health of democracies exacerbate most other systemic risks, as misalignment between political elites and the public interest make progress on urgent issues less likely.
- Decreasing Availability and Increasing Costs of Energy and Raw Materials reduces economic productivity and growth, increases the cost of living, and may eventually cause breakdown or collapse if inputs of energy and resources do not meet maintenance costs.
- Economic Inequality drives negative social outcomes (e.g. physical and mental illness, high rates of incarceration, obesity, violence, substance-abuse, social isolation) and makes social unrest and revolution more likely.
- Global Pandemics cause premature deaths, disrupt global supply chains, and lead to economic contractions, possibly leading to a recession or depression.
- Debt bubbles lead to defaults, the loss of capital, and potentially financial crisis due to broader contagion effects.
- Inflation debases the value of money, increases the cost of living, and may cause economic or financial crisis.
- Declining Growth Rates contribute to structural (esp. financial) crises, given that capitalism depends on growth for its stability.
The global polycrisis reflects a civilizational crisis that calls for systemic alternatives by Zack Walsh, Omega, June 1, 2023
Interconnected risks pose the greatest threat of a polycrisis
The relationship between polycrisis and risk is complex and dynamic. Polycrisis refers to a situation where multiple global risks interact and amplify each other, creating a systemic crisis that exceeds the sum of its parts. Risk is the potential for negative consequences from uncertain events or conditions. Polycrisis increases the likelihood and severity of risks, as well as the uncertainty and complexity of managing them. Polycrisis also reduces the resilience and adaptability of societies, making them more vulnerable to shocks and disruptions. Therefore, polycrisis and risk have a mutually reinforcing effect, creating a vicious cycle that threatens global stability and well-being.
The intersection of current risks with emerging crises poses the greatest risk of a polycrisis. For example, the Global Risks Report 2023 draws a link between the cost-of-living crisis, the failure to mitigate the climate crisis, and the growing pressure on finite resources as a potential catalyst for such an event.
The 2023 edition of the Global Risks Report highlights the multiple areas where the world is
The Global Risks Report 2023 18th Edition Insight Report, World Economic Forum
at a critical inflection point. It is a call to action, to collectively prepare for the next crisis the world may face and, in doing so, shape a pathway to a more stable, resilient world.
The global risks interconnection map above brought my attention to the concept of polycrisis. I have been working on the following diagram to show connections between justice-related ideas and systems for years.
Quakers and Mutual Aid 